Prognosen für Yulia Starodubtsewa — Alina Charaeva

Charaeva has made a habit of making hard-court matches long, but her serve has given opponents openings: she double-faulted repeatedly against Blinkova and let a match-point chance slip against Bondar. Starodubtsewa to win is the play; her forceful baseline game can keep that pressure on.

Her hard-court wins over Sakkari and Tjen, followed by a competitive opening set against Rybakina, give the pick substance. At 1.60, the price looks better than fair for a player who has shown she can hold her own against stronger opposition.

Charaeva is resilient, and Starodubtsewa has not played since early September, so rust is a real concern and the stake stays measured. Still, Charaeva’s service problems give Starodubtsewa a clear route to the win.