Prognosen für Alice Tubello — Julia Grabher

Alice Tubello meets Julia Grabher in the Tolentino Round of 16 on September 24 at 10:30 UTC. Grabher has the higher ranking, but Tubello has spent more of the past month finding her rhythm on clay.

Tubello’s quick start, Grabher’s long way back

Tubello beat Dalila Spiteri 6-2, 6-2 in her Tolentino opener, barely an hour’s work after a productive week in Ljubljana. There, she beat the higher-ranked Dalma Galfi in straight sets before pushing Samira De Stefano through a long quarterfinal. She looks comfortable building rallies and making opponents hit another ball.

Grabher’s opener took a different route: she came from a set down to beat Jennifer Ruggeri 4-6, 7-5, 6-3. Her service games grew cleaner in the decider, a good sign after several weeks away from competition. Clay suits her, but Tubello offers more sustained resistance than Grabher faced during that opening set.

Can Tubello keep the pressure on?

This looks likely to be decided from the baseline, not with a flurry of free points on serve. Tubello can keep Grabher moving and make her create her own pace; her efficient first round also leaves her better placed to do that from the start.

There is a catch: Tubello has recently lost two clay matches after taking the first set, while Grabher has just shown she can improve as a match wears on. Still, Tubello’s recent clay form and sharp return game make her the appealing choice at this price.