Andreeva and Kostyuk meet again in Cincinnati, this time on hard, after the Roland Garros semifinal in which Andreeva smothered her with depth and defence. The surface changes the terms of the argument: Kostyuk has beaten her on hard before, and here the first strike lands before the defence is set.
Two different ways of arriving late
Kostyuk has spent the week solving problems she created herself. Both of her matches here ran to drawn-out set endings, and the serve is the reason: a low first-serve percentage and a pile of double faults. She has also been carrying a doubles draw alongside the singles, including a tiebreak that took plenty out of her, with more still scheduled.
Andreeva has moved through the tournament cleaner and fresher, but her flaw runs the other way. Against Tien she had the second set under control and let it drift into a tiebreak, which reads as a habit rather than an accident. She takes command quickly and then stops pressing.
Where the extra games come from
A player who only switches on once she is in danger, against a player who switches off once she is in front, is not the recipe for 6-3 6-4. The price leans heavily on Paris, where clay handed Andreeva time on every ball; on hard Kostyuk can go through the court rather than around it and stay in sets while playing below her best.
A close outside court and a rivalry with recent history add the rest. The value sits with the games total.
Prediction: Total Over 22.5 games, odds 2.06
